Tomorrow’s Belmont Stakes in Elmont, New York promises to be the most challenging of the three races in the Triple Crown contest for 3 year old horses this year. A field of 13 will enter the starting gate at 6:37 pm to run the daunting distance of one and a half miles. No horse will have a chance to win the Triple Crown this year; but Exaggerator does have a chance to be only the 4th horse in history to win both the Preakness and Belmont after loosing the Kentucky Derby.

The large field means there is no respect for Exaggerator. Doubt stems from his rather trim frame and come from behind running style. Early speed has entered the race as part of a Steve Ausmussin entry-Gettysburg (a great name to me being from central Pennsylvania). He weakened two back in the Arkansas Derby and figures to only be a rabbit for his stable mate Creator.who won the Arkansas Derby and is in the 13 hole; but can barely run at a 90 Beyer Speed figure. I doubt he can win.

Many think a Suddenbreakingnews (4) has a shot at 10-1 since he finished 5th in the Derby and had some racing trouble. I don’t. Stradivari(5), is also in and has a shot to show speed just behind Gettysburg. He ran an excellent 4th in the Preakness and if he holds his speed for the distance has a shot to win this one. There are several horses with no shot in here. Trojan Nation (9), Seeking the Soul (7), and Forever D’Oro (8). Governor Malibu (1) won the Tesio at Laurel but skipped both the Derby and Preakness and has little chance here. I also find it hard to get to Lani (10 ) though he closed well in the Preakness his Japanese connections are just too inexperienced.

I still think Exaggerator will win this year. He has shown an ability to recover physically very fast, is the fastest horse in here and can run forever. If he gets a decent pace in front of him, a clean trip and can hold off the closers down the lane, he will win. He has the best jockey who has won before over the “Big Sandy” Belmont surface.

Cherry Wine cannot be overlooked. He did close for second in the Preakness ( damn )…but remember he showed an ability before in the slop and Nyquist’s jockey should not of moved out off the rail to chase Exaggerator. But he did improve in the Preakness, has good breeding for the long races and this is important to look for when evaluating the race. Remember who I picked to run third in the Derby….Destin big winner in the Tampa Bay Derby. Well Destin (2) is back and was bumped hard in the Derby and then he skipped the Preakness. So I like him. Brody’s Cause (12) will probably run a big race in here and I like him in the gimmicks.

I have attended the Belmont Stakes twice to watch my Derby / Preakness winners run for the Triple Crown….War Emblem and Charismatic. Both lost and Charismatic broke down while War Emblem stumbled out of the gate. It is a tough, tough race to win and a tougher one to handicap. I always say in the longest of races like this that the jockey has a lot more influence in the race’s outcome than many give him credit for (something I never say in shorter races).

Here are my picks:

Exaggerator (11) to Win (if 2-1 or better at post time, bet him hard)

Exacta Box (3):
Exaggerator (11) and Destin (2); Exaggerator (11) and Cherry Wine (3); Exaggerator (11) and Brody’s Cause (12)

Trifecta Box:
Exaggerator (11), Destin (2), and Cherry Wine (3).

Good Luck.
Barry

Tomorrow, May 21st the gates will crack open for the running of the 1 3/16 mile Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Racecourse at about 6:45 pm on NBC. The forecast is 100% chance of rain. This usually means we should expect a sloppy track, not a wet track as the DRF likes to say. The Derby was run at 1 1/4 mile.

The race looks like a two horse affair with Nyquist at 3-5 and Exaggerator at 3-1. The field of 11 includes 8 new contenders who did not run at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. Of particular note, Gun Runner dropped out. Of these, at least 4 will go to the early lead into the first turn with the favorite Nyquist. Only two horses challenged early in the Derby. I predict all four of these…..Uncle Lino (2), Awesome Speed (4), Laoban (8) and Abiding Star (9) will out gun Nyquist to the first turn. If so, it will cause a big challenge to the undefeated Nyquist. Stradivari (11) will play his violin as a close up closer and run next to Nyquist as will Collected (7) who also likes to stalk the pace and close. That will leave late runners Cherry Wine (1) no shot, Lani (6) no shot, Fellowship (10) no shot ; all of whom will hope to close from far back along with my choice, Exaggerator (5).

Key to the race and perhaps the only hope for Exaggerator to beat the talented Nyquist; is for Stradivari ridden by JR Velesquez one of the best riders out there to get up and over and box Nyquist in near the rail behind the 4 front runners going through the first turn. Nyquist has beaten Exaggerator FOUR TIMES now; so logic suggests he should win again. Also, if the track is sloppy it is a plus for the closer. Don’t believe what they say about running on a sloppy. No horse likes the slop….some just run the same in it while most do not.

Keith Desormeaux thinks his horse, Exaggerator has a great ability to “recover” from a big race like the Derby. Doug O’Neil, Nyquist’s trainer, said his horse was laying down in his stall sleeping more. Nyquist ran only twice this year so maybe he will be a bit off in the Preakness due to only two weeks to rest up after the Derby. Whatever. I think we have two great horses and then the rest are more or less, gonna just get in their way.

Here is my betting choices:

(5) Exaggerator to win at 3-1 ; hard to bet Nyquist to win at only 3-5.

(3) Nyquist and (5) Exaggerator in an exacta box again ( like i said in the Derby). Bet heavy since it won’t pay much.

(3) Nyquist, (5) Exaggerator with both (11) Stradivari and Abiding Star (9) in a Triple Box.

We look forward to a great and very interesting race. If Exaggerator wins then the Belmont Stakes in three weeks in New York will be a fantastic grudge match. Good luck !

Barry